20 new managers

Current Premier league managers and their possibility of not being there in August

Arsenal Mikel Arteta Likelihood of being fired  5% Likelihood of leaving 30%

Aston Villa Unai Emery Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 20%

Bournemouth Andoni Iraola Likelihood of being fired  15% Likelihood of leaving 30%

Brentford Thomas Frank Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 70%

Brighton Roberto De Zerbi Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 70%

Burnley Vincent Kompany Likelihood of being fired 80% Likelihood of leaving 0%

Chelsea Mauricio Pochettino Likelihood of being fired  75% Likelihood of leaving 20%

Crystal Palace Roy Hodgson Likelihood of being fired  100% Likelihood of leaving 0%

Everton Sean Dyche Likelihood of being fired  5% Likelihood of leaving 20%

Fulham Marco Silva Likelihood of being fired  5% Likelihood of leaving 50%

Liverpool Jurgen Klopp Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 85%

Luton Rob Edwards Likelihood of being fired 60% Likelihood of leaving 0%

Manchester City Pep Guardiola Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 35%

Manchester United Erik Ten Hag Likelihood of being fired  80% Likelihood of leaving 10%

Newcastle United Eddie Howe Likelihood of being fired  25% Likelihood of leaving 30%

Nottingham Forest Nuno Espirito Santo Likelihood of being fired 70% Likelihood of leaving 0%

Sheffield United Chris Wilder Likelihood of being fired  95% Likelihood of leaving 0%

Tottenham Hotspur Ange Postecoglou Likelihood of being fired  0% Likelihood of leaving 10%

West Ham David Moyes Likelihood of being fired  5% Likelihood of leaving 5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers  Gary O’Neil Likelihood of being fired  5% Likelihood of leaving 40%

Go or please stay

If the table above is right 11 managers could be gone by the start of next season as they are 50% or more likely to go whether sacked or leaving themselves. I suspect that managerial change will be a huge factor for the Premier league 2024/25. Bizarrely, all could be gone and a complete sea change happens. Jurgen Klopp’s announcement has just followed on from a host of big clubs struggling at the moment and major countries looking for managers with Ireland being the biggest prize of all .

If these win La Liga Real Madrid will surely need a manager

What it means is that successful managers at small clubs, and De Zerbi, Frank, and Silva spring to mind, are going to be thrown into the mix for Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Germany and many others, but crucially, managers at big clubs like Arteta will also be in the frame. I have rated him at 30% to leave. Barcelona will come calling for sure with Xavi on the way out. Will he go? I don’t know, but logic dictates that it is easier to win big trophies there than at Arsenal. Real and Barcelona win most things in Spain and even in Europe. He may feel that he is the right man for the job. He is not short of confidence as he applied for the Arsenal job with no experience.

Home is where the esteem lies

To be a big man in your own country is always a huge factor. Roy Hodgson made his name abroad but was always looking to prove himself at home, and he was never regarded with the same respect as he was in other countries.  Arteta may go, people, and that will only please the Arteta out brigade which, I still feel,is a minority of Gooners. I am not sure who can come in and do better. I want him to stay.

Jurgen Klopp - will he really go?

You will notice I have put Klopp at 85% to leave. I feel I may even be generous as I reckon they will put huge pressure on him to stay. However, the announcement may lead to a dip in performances and perhaps he will go. He should get Champions league, though, and that is a prize for the Kop this year. Assuming he goes and Alonso comes, as is speculated, it means both Bayern Munich and Leverkusen could be looking for a manager.

Pep to Barca? Erik to nowhere?

Pep’s position could be anything, the Fair Play sanctions could come into play and they get relegated or even kicked out. A bad end to the season may also happen. Barcelona could be a nice homecoming. If the second outcome happens it leaves a vacancy at City which is still a big draw for an ambitious or established manager. A very bad sanction could leave City unattractive to a big name.

Pep- Tiki-taka Barca

Erik Ten Hag needs a very strong finish to retain his job. I suspect he won’t and that leaves a position at Man Utd, which is still one of the big achievements to tell your grandchildren. Unai Emery and Ange Postecoglou are the big Premiership names currently in the top five who will assuredly come into the frame for the top positions mentioned above. Surely they will want to go to a great European team whether in the Premiership or not? Is Arsenal a top European team? Probably they are on the cusp but Villa and Spurs are definitely not.

Who are certain to go?

If Pochettino doesn’t have a strong end to the season he will also be gone leaving a vacancy at Chelsea – still the most successful 21^st Century English team, and the merry-go-round continues.

Ange Postecoglou - to go to one of the top clubs?

If you were to ask me who will go by next August, I would say Klopp, Ten Hag, Pochettino, Kompany, Wilder, Espirito Santo, De Zerbi, Frank and Hodgson are close to certs. If you put down all of them in an accumulator you would make good money. There will be too many top teams looking for managers for De Zerbi and Frank to stay. Silva also must be a target. I feel that David Moyes is the closest to a cert to stay. He won’t be offered a top job and he would need a really bad finish to be fired.

Poor Chris Wilder looks doomed

I wonder what the odds would be on all change? Retirement money I reckon. It could happen. Go for it!

Arteta out and Barcelona in?

I will finish on Arsenal and Arteta. He won’t be fired. He will be in the frame for all the top jobs. I am not sure whether he would get more money at Barcelona where he is seen as maybe the best candidate short of Pep coming back? He has been working on a long-term plan at Arsenal, with so many top young players locked into extended contracts that he can create a working dynamic where players play together hypnotically, which could mean he could create the best team in Europe. It leaves the pull of his boyhood team, his home country, and this may be his one chance at it. If Arsenal go a bit backwards now under his stewardship he won’t be a candidate in the future.

Roy Hodgson - great foreign days but thrown out this year?

I would say he would be tempted. Against is the certainty that only success is what matters at Barcelona. If you don’t win all and quickly your career there will be over. The uncertainty over their finances may also be a factor. I feel he won’t go but I am certain he will be offered it. I think the deciding factor is that he has been allowed to pursue his vision at Arsenal and that will not be the case at Barcelona or any of the other big names mentioned. I could be wrong.