Bye bye Table of Doom

No Table of Doom this year

Liverpool Max 99 points

Arsenal Max 92 points

Target 88 points

As regular readers will know, early on I reckoned that the target this season would be 92 points. I then shifted that down to 88 as virtually no teams could get there some time ago and I can’t have a table of doom without teams in it. And once again, with 13 games to go, I am in the same position. Only Liverpool and Arsenal can get 88 points. I feel that I can’t drop it any more as Liverpool can drop 11 points and reach that and they probably will at least do that. That leaves two teams in the table of doom and only one match at Anfield between them on the third last match. It means that if Arsenal win all Liverpool can still get 96.

May or may not be our biggest game this season

What can we say for now?  Forest can get 86 if they win all 13 matches. They are out, simple as that. They won’t do that and Liverpool won’t lose enough points to get close to Forest’s final tally.

We play Newcastle at home and Southampton away after Liverpool. Both winnable despite the fact that both teams have caused us blips in recent years. Liverpool play Brighton away and Palace at home, both also winnable. They seem to have a slightly more difficult task but not much more.

3 matches to decide the title?

Where I do think they have the harder task is their next 13. They play Villa and City away and Newcastle at home in their next 3. We play West Ham at home and Forest and Man Utd away. Certainly looks easier for us but we need 3 wins.

This may be our biggest game of the season

Then Chelsea and Fulham at home and Everton away for us.  If all 3 are at their best it will be difficult but we probably need 3 wins. Liverpool are home to Southampton and Everton and away to Fulham. They could easily win all three.

Liverpool then have home to West Ham and Tottenham and away to Leicester. We will definitely need Potter, Postecoglou and Van Nistleroy to have their teams firing by then and even so it is hard to see any points dropped. Maybe if the Spuds have all their players back? C’mon you Spurs! We have Brentford and Palace at home and Ipswich away. We can have no excuses, we must win.

Maybe all games are loseable?

Then we have Bournemouth at home, Liverpool away, and Newcastle and Southampton as mentioned. They have Chelsea away, then us, Brighton and Palace.

We must beat them to start the mindgames

Probably the most crucial for both teams is the next 3 matches. If Liverpool win all 3, then I doubt if we can catch them even if we win 3. If Unai Emery can get Villa playing like they do against us they might just get a point. It is tomorrow so a failure to win gives us a great chance to put a lot of pressure on them before they play City on Sunday. We have West Ham on Saturday. As they have 2 matches we will spend a period with a game in hand.

Can we get inside Liverpool's heads?

We have to beat the Hammers. No question. Potter has form against us as have the Hammers sometimes but drop points here and we have lost the chance to get into Slot’s head. Then Liverpool play City away, and last weekend against Newcastle they looked more like the old City. 4 goals and the new players gelling well. That surely is the match we are hoping for something, even a draw. Liverpool will travel all the way to Manchester, if they have dropped anything to Villa and we win against West Ham, knowing that their season could unravel with a defeat. This is the period when mindgames, that the mind plays with itself, is critical. By now, Liverpool’s players, many of whom have never won the league, will feel that it is theirs to lose. They need that cold clinical head to get them over the line. Any blip could devastate their confidence. They would know a defeat would leave them potentially only 2 points ahead.

Forest away our hardest aside from the big game?

But we are away to Forest, who are flying most weeks. That will be a pressure game. It seems like the hardest match other than Liverpool on our run in. A midweek win, in the scenario above, would push a hammer blow into the frailty of a team later that night then bracing to play Newcastle at home. Eddie Howe will be desperate to do well after being destroyed by Man City.  They are rarely an easy team to play against.

Then the following weekend we play Man Utd away and Liverpool play Southampton at home. As long as Utd are still playing rubbish we should win and Southampton scarcely have a chance at Anfield.

Can Ramsdale do us a favour at Liverpool?

So they will have 4 matches to our 3 at this point. After this point, while there are games Liverpool can lose, they can also probably afford to lose them if they win these 3 plus a banker against Southampton.

Everything is already decided?

So that is where we are. Liverpool seem to have a tougher run in. They absolutely must drop points soon or we are only scrapping for second place. Yes, Champions league looks certain at this point. There could well be a scrap for the rest of the places as even Brighton on 37 points might feel that a strong run gets them up there. I have a feeling that the points total for Champions League may not be too high as lots of teams are dropping points. I suspect the current top four of Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest and City could well make it. I will be surprised if the current top two do not remain the top 2. They are pulling away and a win for Arsenal against Forest would put them further behind.

It is almost decided already?

At the bottom, Southampton look doomed leaving Ipswich, Leicester and Wolves to fight it out for one spot. So in the middle of February, it looks like the bottom four are obvious as is the top two. I can’t really remember it being like this before.

Sadly, no table of doom

It is disappointing for me not to have a table of doom this season but unless both Arsenal and Liverpool drop a few points soon and the chasing pack start winning there is no point. Nobody believes that anyone other than Liverpool and Arsenal can win this time so there would be no tension.

I will suggest that February 26^th could be the marker for this season. We play Forest away and Liverpool play Newcastle at home. The league at that point could well indicate whether we can have a tight end to the season. And Arsenal will have to compete with none of our first choice forward line for that period!

Did I ever say that it is tough to be an Arsenal fan?