What’s the worst that can happen?
Arsenal 99 Liverpool(a) Man City(a) Newcastle (a) Brighton(h)
Man City 94 Liverpool (h) Brighton (a) Arsenal (h)
Man Utd 86 Brighton(a) Newcastle(a) Tottenham(a)
Newcastle 83 Man Utd(h) Tottenham(h) Arsenal(h)
Tottenham 81 Brighton(h) Newcastle(a) Man Utd(h) Liverpool (a)
Brighton 81 Man Utd(h) Tottenham(a) Man City(h) Arsenal(a)
Liverpool 78 Man City(a) Arsenal(h) Tottenham(h)
The above is the league table at the end of the season with the maximum points for each team plus their games against the top seven.
I will make a prediction, if we win all our matches to the end of the season, we will win the league and Europa league. Wow, Gus, you are brilliant. How do you know such things? It’s because I am a genius. Well no, it’s because I can do basic maths.
Let’s say we have a bad end to the season, dropping points and going all Spursy, how bad can it get? Not so bad really. I am going to concentrate on the league and see whether we can relax, at least as far as Champions league is concerned. I have decided that I need to go down as far as Brighton for potential CL slots. So I have put together a bad hypothetical situation for us and that is relegation form and 11 points from 11 draws for 77 or 7 losses and only 4 wins for 78. We currently have 66 from 27 games which should be enough for CL. In reality, looking at the maximum points as I have below I reckon in or around 70 will be good enough this year. I have calculated each teams points total based on them getting the same amount of average points they have got so far.
Are the contenders good enough?
Brighton are in 7th with 39 points and 24 games. They can get 81 if they win all but do have to play 4 of the current top 7 including ourselves. Based on results so far they will get 62. They won’t come near us as they are bound to drop points. We play them at home in our 3rd last match and a win for us there will for sure mean they have no chance. They probably won’t see near 70 points which they would need. I would say around 60 is what they will get.
So Brighton out.
Liverpool have an even tougher job to do as the maximum they can get is 78 if they win all. We play them on April 9th away and a win or a draw knocks them out. They surely have no real chance of finishing above us.
Liverpool have City away and us and the Spuds at home. Drop points there and CL might be very difficult for them. Make no mistake, mighty Liverpool, the mentality monsters, will need most of that 78 points to get Champions league. I don’t think they will do it. And if we beat them it will be even more difficult. They may well make 68 or so points if they start being consistent. A repeat of their current form gives them a maximum of 62.
Not a black and white year
Newcastle can get 83 and they play us, Man Utd and the Spuds. They play all at home and may well garner some points but of course, if they do they make it harder for other teams to catch us. If we beat them we stop them getting near us. They seem to be finding it more tricky as time goes on and I believe they will struggle to secure CL. And only a disaster would see them finishing in front of us. A repeat of their current form would give them 67 and that’s what I am going to say 67 points and a battle with the Spuds for 4th place which they don’t quite make.
A Spursy year?
They always are
And now I am in the current top four and the marvellous Spuds who unfortunately get battered everywhere they go. They can muster 81 points. They play four teams, Brighton at home, Newcastle away, Man Utd at home and Liverpool away and those matches are almost one after the other. Conte would need them to be at their best but even that will see them dropping points, they are Totteringham after all. Still if they get some points they will do us good, particularly if we happen to have this bad spell I am talking about. They may well get in though as the teams below them have stuttered. A repeat of their current form to date gives them 68 but maybe 70 points if they have a non Spursy end to the season.
Spurs in, but not above us. 4th
At least they got one trophy
Manchester United can get 86. They play Brighton, Newcastle and the Spuds away. The Spuds can do us a favour. C’mon the Spuds Those 3 matches alone will be hard, not to mention that points are very spread out in the league this year. To prove my point, Southampton are bottom on 22 and 26 games but win all and they have 58 and pushing for Europa league. Getting back to United, they should get above 70, a repeat of their current form gives them 73. Most likely 73 to 75.
Man Utd 3rd
Man City can get 94. If they do I feel they will win the league. They play Liverpool at home, Brighton away and us at home, all matches close together. We need them to drop points as the above disaster scenario for us would see them jump right over us. Beat them and it would be a great boost. And we will for sure be Liverpool and Brighton fans for the day. If they repeat their current form they will get 86. I expect somewhere around 86 to 90 may be their final tally. I will plump for 87. Remember if we beat them they have to win all their matches to get 91. We can lose 2 and draw one in that scenario.
One monster left in our way
We don't want a blue and white year
Man City 2nd but first if we have the disaster situation or even stutter somewhat.
We can outgun them all
That leaves us. We can get 99 and, like I said above, a maths wizard such as myself will tell you confidently we will win the league if we get such a tally. We play Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle away and Brighton at home. We will need to gather points for sure. If I am right we will need at least 87 to overcome City. We will get 93 if we continue our current form. We can do it, we are the Arsenal. However, if it all goes wrong and disaster does strike us, we should still have enough to make Champions League. And we can afford a little stumble if I am right, we can drop maybe 10 points and still win the league.
The teams below us would have to almost win all, and they are all playing each other which means they have to drop points. Even a bad spell now will see us in Champions League. We do have a great chance. 11 matches to prove we are the Arsenal, the team that sends others home crying. Gary Neville, are you listening? If we hold our nerve, we can do it. I believe we will. And I am hoping that Arsene Wenger will attend to see it. It would be astounding to hear our fans singing about Wenger and Arteta, master and apprentice turned master.