Where will we finish 2025? part one

Where will we finish 2025? part one

So here we are again, trying to explain what will happen in the new season without all the facts. And yet I have got it remarkably correct through the years. I normally come to around 3 points of the final total. Last year, Mr Dani Georgiev came on board with his expertise and did very well, also coming close to the final total. At this point we don’t know all transfers for us or the opposition so we will go for the first 8 matches and give you the results and even the scores.

Will Unai Emery drain blood from us?

What can we say for now? 3 top teams and 5 next level. Bizarrely, or as the conspiracy theorists might say, as expected, the 3 top teams are away. An effort to drain us of confidence early on so we have no chance? I will declare now that we must beat the five lower teams and get at least 5 points from the other 3.  I am going to set the target at 92 points this year as I feel only Villa may be the real competition to the top two. I will come back to the points total later.

A huge clearout

We have sent out 25 players with only 4 of those on loan. There are still others such as Nketiah, Nelson and Ramsdale who may go with just over 2 weeks left till deadline day. A lot of the names we have been waiting for are now gone for good. Calafiori is the highest profile of our 4 newcomers with Merino expected to come. Possibly we will not get anyone else. Logically it must mean that there are academy players pushing through that are better than what we have let go. We always said Arsene knows, can we say that Mikel knows? I hope so.

Will Savinho make the difference at City?

I think all the traditional top teams have problems this year and I will go through them in turn. It is hard to see which teams will come through from the pack. Last year I correctly predicted that Villa would claim CL football but I don’t see anyone this year. West Ham, Newcastle and possibly Brighton should be top half but I feel that there could be a bunch of teams winning and losing matches and whoever gets enough points on board will get European places. There could well be a gap between the top three and the rest.

All the other potential challengers have problems

Man Utd are in transition and need players. Their buys look promising but surely they need time to put together a cohesive team? I feel the best they can hope for is to challenge for Champions League.

Liverpool also look in transition and unless Arne Slot gets them firing early I feel they are looking at hoping for mediocrity around them to garner points. His inexperience at Premier League level could be a factor in making it a difficult year for the Scousers.

Russell Martin looks to have a near impossible job at Southampton

Chelsea have yet again a new manager in Enzo Maresca, unproven at this level, and new players.  Arteta did it as a pure rookie so it is not impossible but it took Arteta some time to get to where he is now. I expect Chelsea to struggle.

The final Champions League spot will be a scramble

The Spuds? I like Postecoglou but the results fell apart last season and his transfer dealings don’t make a lot of sense to me. Solanke coming in looks good but the rest are certainly unproven. I think he will be hoping that the challengers are poor this season so he can sneak into a CL spot.

Dominic Solanke for the Spuds? Maybe he doesn't like winning trophies?

I will talk about Newcastle as well as they were CL last season but again they have gone for unknowns mostly and there are still rumours of key players leaving. If the competition is poor as I expect you never know with them, and Eddie Howe may well have spotted some gems in his imports. He needs a good season but maybe he won’t get one.

What we need is scary

If I am right, and the competition looks to be struggling then the points total at the top could be higher. I will say 92 should be good enough. 22 points can be lost over 38 matches in that scenario. That gives us a frightening 2.421052631578947 points average per match and needing 19.36842105263158 points over these 8 matches. Rounding that up to 20 means we can drop only 4 points. 2 draws and six wins is the target so. If we don’t we make it harder in the next 30.

Our predictions

On to the predictions and once again the wonderful Dani Georgiev is on hand to give us his expertise.

Wolves at home and I go 3-0 and Dani 3-1 and we are happy. They have sold 2 top players in Neto and Kilman and I think they will struggle. 3 points.

Villa away and I say that Emery has been a nuisance for us. He will fire up his players for this match and I am going 1-1 and Dani 1-0 for us. They have spent big money and Emery knows his football. I think they could improve on last year.  So Gus 4 points, Dani 6.

Fabian Hurzeler looks a risky bet to me

Brighton at home and their new manager, a true rookie in Fabian Hurzeler, age 31 with no top flight experience anywhere seems like a gamble that will go wrong. They have spent a lot of money by their standards but lots of the players are older than him. We saw what happened with the experienced players at Arsenal and Arteta but he had the strength to take them on and win. Fabian has a hard task following de Zerbi who seems to be a genius. I go 3-1 and Dani 2-1 but I would not be surprised if we do better.  Gus 7 points, Dani 9 points

The Spuds away. I say 1-0 and Dani 3-1 to us. We will need it. Gus 10 points and Dani 12 points.

City away next but I am hoping that Pep takes a bit of time to get into his stride. I go 1-0 and Dani 1-1. Savinho is their big signing so far but their forward line is very strong anyway. We just need to be better than them. Gus 13 points and Dani 13 points and we are now equal.

Leicester at home next and we must win. Their transfer dealings don’t look inspired  but Steve Cooper generally does well. Not today though as I go 4-1 to us and Dani 3-0. Gus 16 points and Dani 16 points.

Southampton at home and yes, we must win. They have taken in 14 players so far and that never works. A rookie Premier League manager in Russell Martin and I think they are straight back down unless other teams are worse. I say 3-0 and Dani 2-0. Gus 19 points, Dani 19 points.

Andoni Iraola at Bournemouth may give us a headache

Bournemouth next away and this could be tricky, but we have to win even though one point brings us to the magic 20 that we need according to my assessment up top. Andoni Iraola is a good manager but he has sold Dominic Solanke, easily their best player last season. We must beat the weaker teams and get points in the bag for when things go wrong. I reckon we won’t be at our best but scrape a 1-0. Dani says 4-0 and comfortable but we will see. Gus 22 points and Dani 22 points.

If that happens we will have a little extra points in the bag. One defeat instead of the one draw we have both said gives us 21 and some leeway. That is our reality this season, we must be nearly perfect. City will give us very little to work with as usual. We may even need an invincible season. It is going to be tough and we will need to be tougher.

We can do it.