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Showing results for tags '4th place'.
Entering the Twilight Zone A strange season, the strangest yet. And about to get even stranger? Probably. Arsenal are halfway along with a few others. Where can we end up? Today I am going to come up with a few scenarios and in the end, plump for what I feel will happen. There are lots of variables but some conclusions can be drawn all the same. The first is that it will be a low points season. However that may not translate into 4th place as at the moment that is looking high. Looking at the table as it is now 20/1/2021 and giving Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool wins in their final matches for halfway as they all look winnable, let’s see where we are. Can We Win All Our Matches? Maybe In a Parallel Universe? Arsenal, if we win all our matches, will have 84 points. City, on the above scenario will be at the turn on 41 and top. A repeat for them would be 82, a low total by recent years. By that logic, Arsenal need to win all their matches to claim the league. However, if we could, I feel that this year it would be enough. Realistically, though, the league is not a likely option. Even the most blinkered Gooner won’t think we can win the championship this year. Maybe not impossible but close to it. A typical Arsenal training session this year So what else is out there for us? Let’s say we repeat the first 19 total of 27 points. That gives us 54 points. We had 56 last year and 8th. I would say outside the Europa league spots and somewhere between 8th and 11th. No danger of relegation but a mediocre season and hoping to win one of the 2 cups left to grab a Euro spot. We are all hopeful that we can do better than the first half, but we need to win a lot more I feel to grab the prize we want, Champions League. Can We Win Our Weirdest Wenger Trophy? The lowest ever 4th place was Liverpool in 2004 with 60 points. That is very doable for us, we would only have to be 6 points better over the next 19 to get that. However, Liverpool will be on 37 points at halfway on the above scenario and that is 74 on a repeat. As the other teams around them are close enough it seems to me that 70 or more is the target. So now we need 70+, can we get that? That is at least 16 points better than the first half or 43 points, better than any team has managed so far with City, if they win their last 2, on 41 as I proposed above. We will need a very strong finish to the season to get Champions league. And by the way, our worst ever 4th place was 67 points in 2006. We Don’t Know Who We Are. Seems we don't need a second goalkeeper like normal teams One problem we are facing is that nobody seems to know our best 11. Leno in goal for sure as we don’t seem to have anyone else. Tierney and Cedric for me as fullbacks. Or maybe Maitland Niles instead of Cedric. Bellerin is poor at the final ball. Holding has grown into the job but Gabriel and Mari could be our best bet. Smith Rowe, Partey, Xhaka and Saka with Auba and Lacazette up front but if Martinelli gets fit I would prefer him. But I guess there is no agreement as to our best 11. Can we put a strong enough winning run together, though? A couple of injuries to key players like Leno, Tierney, Saka or Smith Rowe and we could be in trouble. We have a young side, and we badly need to keep them and develop the others coming through, and with that in mind, I could live with a mediocre season if necessary as long as we develop the kids. They will come good for us. Injuries to key players could derail us Is That Light a Train Coming Through The Other Side of The Tunnel? One possible chink of light is our last six matches, all winnable with Chelsea the toughest. If we are in with a chance by then we could pile on the points and maybe even squeeze into the big prize and Champions league. So what do I think? I think we will end up with around 64, and that may get us Europa league. If we don’t improve our points total enough, I think that will affect our cup chances so this year we may not have a back door to Europe. A bit better than that 64 and we are challenging for Champions League. And that would be to me science fiction, but it is a weird season.