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Where will we finish 2025? part 2 I was five points out last time, my worst performance so far. It was also my most optimistic predictions. I said, and so did Dani Georgiev, that we would get 22 points and we got 17. I said last time that the target was 92 points at the end which means we needed: 2.421052631578947 points per match over the 38 games. We need to wipe the smile of Arne Slot's face The Table of Doom has obviously not started yet as most teams could get 92 points still except Southampton and Wolves. We now need 3 more points over the next 30 if we are to win the league as we dropped 3 from my target. In essence we need 25 points from the next ten. One draw and one loss and win the rest. We have made it even harder to get to 92. Manchester City and Liverpool have a better chance of reaching 92 than we have. If we beat Liverpool then we have nullified their advantage. If they beat us we have made it harder. We need to be almost perfect over the next ten. The good thing is that Liverpool are the best team we face, then Chelsea. This is an easier run of games but we dropped points to Bournemouth and Brighton, both teams similar to the others we face. Red cards = dropped points I know what you are saying about the red cards but if we continue as we are we will have around ten more red cards to the end of the season. As we lost 7 points in those games, ten red cards would lose us around 26 more points. 35 lost in total leaves us on 81 points which means no real chance of the title. It would also mean that we have to win all the games without red cards. Blue devils but not dark arts for Enzo Maresco? Hmm! Was it a coincidence that Arsenal were spun as the dark arts masters towards the end of last season and hyped enormously as so in the close season and the new one? Are we particularly worse than anyone else? Yes, we are masters of the dead ball but that is a tactic developed by Arteta’s team. The dark arts are pulling and dragging and diving mostly. I definitely don’t believe we are the worst divers and all teams pull and drag in dead ball situations. The professional foul is now standard for all teams and if Arsenal get a red card every time we will have to become tamer than the rest. That will definitely cost us points. We absolutely have to stop getting red cards I am going to go for an optimistic approach again for this blog but my proviso is that we don’t get lots of red cards and we can play more or less our normal game. Last season, despite somehow being flagged as dark arts kings, we had the second best disciplinary record. It is nonsense to believe we are dirtier than the rest. So, on to the matches and once again Dani Georgiev is my co-predictor: Liverpool at home and we must win. We may have to hope that Arne Slot is the new Ange Postecoglou and now that they have tougher matches they drop points. We must win here for all sorts of reasons and I believe we will. Even a draw makes everything harder. 2-1 for me and Dani and we hit 20 points Nuke Hassle away and it really depends what Newcastle turn up. They sometimes give us a hard time but I am hopeful that our defence stays solid and we come away with 3 points. 2-0 and 1-0 for Dani and we go to 23 points Chelsea away and one of four London derbies over this period. They have got good players and their manager is doing well but I feel they will give us chances. We must take them. I am worried that we won’t. Our first draw at 1-1 and 24 points but Dani goes for 2-1 and he now has 26 points Forest at home next and they have proved tricky this season and are the only team to beat Liverpool. We must win. I feel we will. Home advantage prevails in a nervy game. 2-1 27 points for me and Dani goes 4-0 and 29 points West Ham away and another London derby. They are struggling to get points and their manager could even be fired at this point if that continues. This could be one of our best performances even though we don’t score many. Could Julien Lopetegui be the first to be fired? 2-0 and 30 points with Dani 1-1 now also 30 and life is starting to look good for us. Manchester United at home and nobody knows what sort of Man Utd will appear. As long as this isn’t one of their good days we should win. Could be very nervy, though. 2-1 to us and Dani 2-0 and 33 points Fulham away next and are they our new bogey team? We got one point from them last term and maybe this will be another. London derbies are always tough. Are we afraid of this guy? We really need all 3 points from Marco Silva 1-1 For me and Dani 2-2 and 34 points Everton at home and Sean Dyche is struggling and could be gone by this stage. He regularly gives us a hard game but this time I feel we will once again be comfortable without scoring much. A late goal makes the game look easier than it is. Sean Dyche could be the first to be sacked. 2-0 and Dani 3-0 and 37 points Crystal Palace away and despite having good players they don’t seem to be taking to the new manager. He is another that could be gone by the time this comes around. We generally make hard work of Palace and I expect the same. It is another London derby. A late goal gives us the win. Or Oliver Glasner could be gone 2-1 and Dani the same 2-1 and 40 points. Hey, we won’t be relegated, yay! Ipswich at home last and they are playing really well without much result. There are Irishmen connected with this club and I would like to see them doing well. I loved Bobby Robson’s Ipswich in the 80’s. But no matter how well they play we must win. 2-1 for me and 3-1 for Dani and we get 43 points. This means we only drop 4 points and, honestly that is hard to see. I think we are now a battling side and I hope we scrape out the wins needed. 43 points at this stage could easily see us top the league over Christmas. A repeat of the first 8 games would see us with 21.25 points, rounding down to 21 would give us 38 points. We would really have an uphill battle then. I think we can expect City to keep winning. Will Liverpool? Villa are, like us, playing catch up, but they are a good side. I feel that top four at the moment is the final top four. The positions, though, are still open. We must put in a strong ten matches. And I hope no red cards.

Where will we finish 2025? part one So here we are again, trying to explain what will happen in the new season without all the facts. And yet I have got it remarkably correct through the years. I normally come to around 3 points of the final total. Last year, Mr Dani Georgiev came on board with his expertise and did very well, also coming close to the final total. At this point we don’t know all transfers for us or the opposition so we will go for the first 8 matches and give you the results and even the scores. Will Unai Emery drain blood from us? What can we say for now? 3 top teams and 5 next level. Bizarrely, or as the conspiracy theorists might say, as expected, the 3 top teams are away. An effort to drain us of confidence early on so we have no chance? I will declare now that we must beat the five lower teams and get at least 5 points from the other 3. I am going to set the target at 92 points this year as I feel only Villa may be the real competition to the top two. I will come back to the points total later. A huge clearout We have sent out 25 players with only 4 of those on loan. There are still others such as Nketiah, Nelson and Ramsdale who may go with just over 2 weeks left till deadline day. A lot of the names we have been waiting for are now gone for good. Calafiori is the highest profile of our 4 newcomers with Merino expected to come. Possibly we will not get anyone else. Logically it must mean that there are academy players pushing through that are better than what we have let go. We always said Arsene knows, can we say that Mikel knows? I hope so. Will Savinho make the difference at City? I think all the traditional top teams have problems this year and I will go through them in turn. It is hard to see which teams will come through from the pack. Last year I correctly predicted that Villa would claim CL football but I don’t see anyone this year. West Ham, Newcastle and possibly Brighton should be top half but I feel that there could be a bunch of teams winning and losing matches and whoever gets enough points on board will get European places. There could well be a gap between the top three and the rest. All the other potential challengers have problems Man Utd are in transition and need players. Their buys look promising but surely they need time to put together a cohesive team? I feel the best they can hope for is to challenge for Champions League. Liverpool also look in transition and unless Arne Slot gets them firing early I feel they are looking at hoping for mediocrity around them to garner points. His inexperience at Premier League level could be a factor in making it a difficult year for the Scousers. Russell Martin looks to have a near impossible job at Southampton Chelsea have yet again a new manager in Enzo Maresca, unproven at this level, and new players. Arteta did it as a pure rookie so it is not impossible but it took Arteta some time to get to where he is now. I expect Chelsea to struggle. The final Champions League spot will be a scramble The Spuds? I like Postecoglou but the results fell apart last season and his transfer dealings don’t make a lot of sense to me. Solanke coming in looks good but the rest are certainly unproven. I think he will be hoping that the challengers are poor this season so he can sneak into a CL spot. Dominic Solanke for the Spuds? Maybe he doesn't like winning trophies? I will talk about Newcastle as well as they were CL last season but again they have gone for unknowns mostly and there are still rumours of key players leaving. If the competition is poor as I expect you never know with them, and Eddie Howe may well have spotted some gems in his imports. He needs a good season but maybe he won’t get one. What we need is scary If I am right, and the competition looks to be struggling then the points total at the top could be higher. I will say 92 should be good enough. 22 points can be lost over 38 matches in that scenario. That gives us a frightening 2.421052631578947 points average per match and needing 19.36842105263158 points over these 8 matches. Rounding that up to 20 means we can drop only 4 points. 2 draws and six wins is the target so. If we don’t we make it harder in the next 30. Our predictions On to the predictions and once again the wonderful Dani Georgiev is on hand to give us his expertise. Wolves at home and I go 3-0 and Dani 3-1 and we are happy. They have sold 2 top players in Neto and Kilman and I think they will struggle. 3 points. Villa away and I say that Emery has been a nuisance for us. He will fire up his players for this match and I am going 1-1 and Dani 1-0 for us. They have spent big money and Emery knows his football. I think they could improve on last year. So Gus 4 points, Dani 6. Fabian Hurzeler looks a risky bet to me Brighton at home and their new manager, a true rookie in Fabian Hurzeler, age 31 with no top flight experience anywhere seems like a gamble that will go wrong. They have spent a lot of money by their standards but lots of the players are older than him. We saw what happened with the experienced players at Arsenal and Arteta but he had the strength to take them on and win. Fabian has a hard task following de Zerbi who seems to be a genius. I go 3-1 and Dani 2-1 but I would not be surprised if we do better. Gus 7 points, Dani 9 points The Spuds away. I say 1-0 and Dani 3-1 to us. We will need it. Gus 10 points and Dani 12 points. City away next but I am hoping that Pep takes a bit of time to get into his stride. I go 1-0 and Dani 1-1. Savinho is their big signing so far but their forward line is very strong anyway. We just need to be better than them. Gus 13 points and Dani 13 points and we are now equal. Leicester at home next and we must win. Their transfer dealings don’t look inspired but Steve Cooper generally does well. Not today though as I go 4-1 to us and Dani 3-0. Gus 16 points and Dani 16 points. Southampton at home and yes, we must win. They have taken in 14 players so far and that never works. A rookie Premier League manager in Russell Martin and I think they are straight back down unless other teams are worse. I say 3-0 and Dani 2-0. Gus 19 points, Dani 19 points. Andoni Iraola at Bournemouth may give us a headache Bournemouth next away and this could be tricky, but we have to win even though one point brings us to the magic 20 that we need according to my assessment up top. Andoni Iraola is a good manager but he has sold Dominic Solanke, easily their best player last season. We must beat the weaker teams and get points in the bag for when things go wrong. I reckon we won’t be at our best but scrape a 1-0. Dani says 4-0 and comfortable but we will see. Gus 22 points and Dani 22 points. If that happens we will have a little extra points in the bag. One defeat instead of the one draw we have both said gives us 21 and some leeway. That is our reality this season, we must be nearly perfect. City will give us very little to work with as usual. We may even need an invincible season. It is going to be tough and we will need to be tougher. We can do it.

Premier league managers are not all gone- yet. On February 1st 2024 I wrote that we could see the biggest amount of change ever in the Premier League by the start of the new season. I was wrong, at least so far. Six teams changed managers with only Burnley of the relegated teams, and even then, Kompany left of his own accord for a much bigger team in Bayern Munich. Crystal Palace fired Roy Hodgson as expected, De Zerbi left Brighton, Pochettino was fired from Chelsea, Klopp really did leave Liverpool, David Moyes was pushed out at West Ham. We still have a little bit of time yet but I don’t anticipate much more to come. There might be a job at Everton, David The only one I got seriously wrong was David Moyes. It seems West Ham fans just didn’t like him. But it was the most unjust sacking I have seen in a while. West Ham never win trophies but somehow Moyes managed the miracle. I cannot see them winning another any time soon. Ten Hag is the miracle man Lots of managers got a late reprieve with Ten Hag at Manchester United perhaps the most notable. Winning the FA Cup saved him although he is probably a strong contender for the sack if he gets off to a bad start. Ten Hag - I need the ten best players in the world to come to Utd or I will be sacked Thomas Frank dropping down towards the relegation zone didn’t help his prospects of getting a big job but I feel he is in some owner’s minds all the same. Roberto de Zerbi moved to Marseille but that’s not much of a step up. Arteta is going nowhere but who is going out? Arteta could have been tempted by Barcelona but the job went to Hansi Flick. Arteta surely has a power at Arsenal that he would not have at another club? The team is his, the players are his, and he seems to have the backroom team on his side as well. A move would see him having to create a lot of new relationships. I feel only a severe bad spell could see the Arteta out brigade gaining traction. Arteta to stay, then. Arne Slot - he won't slot in Who could go, then? Arne Slot is in a high pressure job, probably the second most such after Chelsea. He needs results and a good style of play. Otherwise one season may be his achievement. Enzo Maresca? Chelsea are rapidly becoming a graveyard for managers. Under Abramovich they would win and still be fired so at least they were employable. Now, they don't win, get fired, and maybe end up on the dungheap. Maresca has no Premier League experience, faces a divided club, with lots of high salaries and no-one has any clue who their best players are, with the exception of Cole Palmer. I suppose, in comparison to Arne Slot though, he has a little more leeway. If he brings them up a little he may get a stay of execution. What does the betting say? Ten Hag has proven resilient at Manchester United. The new system in place may benefit him, however, he needs top players to come in and make an immediate impact. Players like Erikson and Casemiro seem to be coming to an end and Rashford, Anthony and Martial along with others are going or need to improve. It will be hard to have a top season but he needs green shoots to get another chance. Is a strong candidate for the sack I feel, and is 10-1 in the betting. Enzo Maresca - bye bye Russell Martin of Southampton is 14-1 and teams who come up via the playoffs have it difficult. They will probably struggle but I am not sure he will go until the end unless they have a real disaster. Sean Dyche is also 14-1 and that must be surprising but honestly I am more surprised that someone has not come in for him. He is a top manager, particularly with limited resources. The chaos at Everton is the reason he is so high in the betting but I don’t believe he will be fired, although he may leave. The London boys won’t be sacked Oliver Glasner of Crystal Place is 12-1 and I can’t really understand why. They did well and have a lot of good young players. I think they will be comfortable. He won’t be fired. Marco Silva at Fulham is 12-1 and again I would be surprised if he gets fired. Buying in Smith-Rowe could be the latest in his normally good signings and it is a bit of a little Arsenal now with Leno and Iwobi already there. I see them above mid-table. Andoni Iraola at Bournemouth is also 12-1 and I also don’t know why. They will probably be bottom half but high bottom half. The first 100 year old to play in the Premier League? Steve Cooper is 10-1 and yes he has a hard task as Leicester, of the 3 promoted teams, have the highest expectations. They did win the Premier League not too long ago and have experienced players at this level, including 100 year old Jamie Vardy, who will probably continue to bang in goals. Cooper’s record at his various teams and the England youths, is quite good and I expect he will keep them up without too much bother. He never seems to stay a long time, though. I will be astonished if Eddie Howe gets the boot Eddie Howe of Newcastle is 8-1 but that is down to the off field problems they are having with finances. Top players are up for sale and there is talk of Isak coming to Arsenal. If they sell off and are weakened then Howe could go but I really do not see it as his fault. Again, unless he has a disaster and he never does at any club, then he will be there at the end of the season. Santo lost in the Forest Nuno Espirito Santo is 10-1 and he is one I fancy will not last. He seems to have lost his mojo and a bad run at Nottingham Forest will see him booted out. If you can get better than 10 -1 I would grab it but I feel that is free money. A thousand on that gives you 11 back and that would make it a good year for you. He will go, I am certain. There is a way out of the Forest, Nuno - the sack Arne Slot can get you up to 50-1 and that seems a bargain. Even a small bet there will pay off most likely. A bad run could give you the option to cash out and I am certain that will happen. Enzo Maresca is 16-1 and that also is nearly guaranteed to pay out. Definitely, once Chelsea have their usual disaster run you will be able to cash out. These last three are value to me. You heard it here first. Put your money on those three straightaway and once there is good cash out value, take your money. And don’t forget to say thanks Gus.

There’s only one magic number - 114 114 is the magic number. How come? Because that is when you have won all your matches in the Premier League. And the best so far? 100 points in 2018 for Manchester City. In recent years City have moved into realms only achieved in a few leagues such as Bayern Munich in Germany, Real Madrid in Spain, or Juventus in Italy. Bayern have 33 titles, well ahead of the best in England. Real Madrid have 36. Juventus also have 36. Bayern have a 91 points record but from 34 matches. Madrid have 100 from 38 matches. Juventus have 102 from 38 matches. Juventus will do anything to stay top and have been relegated to prove it These are astonishing numbers. They point to a supremacy that emphasises the gap between the top and the rest. Is it good? I say no. It means that there is little fairness in the system and the big teams grab any margin they can in their favour. Any advantage is a good advantage Margins are the reality now in major sports. What will give you any advantage no matter how small. The aim? To get to 100%. Then you win all matches. Before, if your star player or players were injured you would lose, but 5 subs and huge squads mean that, for instance, when Ederson at City was injured, Ortega came in and nobody could spot any difference. Guardiola rotated with abandon last season and still got 91 points. De Bruyne and Haaland were also injured but the margins were covered. Grealish was regarded as vital the previous season but this season struggled for a game. No Ederson - no problem Having a top class large squad of almost interchangeable players gives you the most improvement to your margins. The capacity to hire and fire players is also crucial. Guardiola and his team rarely seem to get it wrong. Cole Palmer? There is De Bruyne, Foden, Rodri, Silva, Grealish and many others there. He probably would have had to wait for a chance that might not have come. We must sell better One margin in this area that City have been doing better than Arsenal is in selling. We have let a lot of players go cheaply. Pepe, anyone? We have bought better in the past two seasons. Rice, Havertz, Trossard and Raya spring to mind but I feel we will be trying to sell players this summer and I am not sure if we will get a good price. I suggested here that up to 15 players could go and some may have to go cheaply. We will probably buy 3 or 4 but most likely for big money. Cole Palmer - Chelsea's best player couldn't get a game at City My point is that all margins have to be in our favour as they are at City. It is not enough to get most things right. City are close to achieving that 100% margin and we must beat them. Can we? We have to get everything right What do we need to get right? The players for sure. They must be good enough to win all matches. The manager must be able to get the maximum from his players. Does Arteta get more from his players than Guardiola? We will see. The recruitment and selling team must be able to buy and sell sustainably. Letting players go for free or cheap is a margin against us. The backroom team for the health and fitness of the players must ensure that injuries, stamina, and speed, etc. are kept to the best possible margin. Pepe - great business for Arsenal The business people in the club must gain every margin they can in maximising revenue from ticket sales, TV rights, merchandising, and memberships, to grow year on year. City have consistently moved upwards in fan numbers every year. Can Arsenal do the same? The Kroenkes are crucial to gaining the upper hand I feel that it is these margins for success that the Kroenkes are aware of. They know they must gain an advantage over City if they are to win. City, are, I suspect, saying the same thing. They must ensure that the margins they have at the moment are kept. Guardiola has come out on top of Arteta every year so far. We must get better. Can we? Who are the rivals? Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Aston Villa, the Spuds, and Newcastle are the chasers. I believe there are grounds for optimism with these clubs. I will go through them as they are written above but it is difficult, at this juncture to say who are the strongest. Upheaval at all rivals bar one Manchester United seem to need a squad overhaul with plenty of players coming in. Bedding them in will be a challenge. They also need to get their backroom teams at their peak to minimise injuries, etc and the new business management team will probably take some time to get their margins right. I will be surprised if Man Utd can get things right quickly enough. If they do start to get all margins up the following season could see them back challenging. They have huge revenue and a large fanbase to help them along. If Ten Hag is the right man this season will show this. Top four will be their best hope I feel. Will the new manager slot in at Liverpool? It is a huge ask and rarely happens when an iconic manager departs. Lots of good players and a system in place that tries to maximise the margins as Liverpool have got huge points totals in recent years but again I feel that they need to be really lucky with Arne Slot. Again I feel that top four is the best they can hope for. Arne Slot needs everything to go right at Liverpool - could be another Ten Hag Chelsea again have a new manager and while that worked for Abramovich it doesn’t work for Boehly. They need everything working right everywhere to challenge City and us. All margins wound to the top. Another bad year, I expect. Villa could make a jump upwards Villa? Unai Emery knows all about chasing down the margins. He will be working hard to get to 100%. Champions League football will make it harder. I feel he can be the dark horse, particularly if he buys right. The biggest danger. The Spuds? It seems like they have shot themselves in the foot again. When the Euros is over there are still top clubs and countries out there looking for a manager that wants to win. Ange could be their man. He lost the battle to get them to think like winners and that’s a big margin to change. He won’t be able. He will need the chasing pack to be poor, I feel, if he is to get top four. Newcastle? Their Arab owners are looking at every margin and trying to get them in their favour but the financial ones are a hamstring. Rumours are they have to sell. They could challenge for top four but I suspect they won’t quite get there. We will need more points, maybe quite a few more No player must be irreplaceable - not even Saliba If Arteta and the gang manage to put a couple more small margins in our favour we can do it. They will look at every area and see where we can improve. But so will City. Last year was our lucky year with minimal injuries. We will need to buy well and for the whole squad to be ready. Arteta will need two top players in every position so that even if William, Bukayo, Declan, or Martin get injured, we can carry on winning. We will need a huge amount of points and if I am right that the chasing pack are weaker this year, several more than last season. We will need to be close to that 100%. We need the magic number 114 in our sights.