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The bad predictors are back Next ten Fixtures Brentford A, Brighton A, Tottenham H, Villa H, Wolves A, Man City H, Leicester A, West Ham H, Forest A, Man Utd H Ok, me and Dani Georgiev have to put our hands up. We have done badly so far. The optimism at the start of the season evaporated and so both of us were 5 out in the first attempt at this. And last time, we were both 7 points out. Neither time did we have the same predictions but we both ended up with the same amount of points, and embarrassingly wrong. For our first 8 games red cards were the catalyst for dropped points and this time it was teams parking the bus, coupled with the loss of Martin Odegaard. We do struggle if teams shut up shop and it was highly obvious against Ipswich, our last game. The good news is that if we beat Brentford away in our first game, we will be second and still ready to take advantage of a Liverpool slump. We need another Liverpool collapse Last column, I revised the table of doom figure I have used in my last 2 predictions as I feel that it is too high. I brought it down to 88 points although obviously Liverpool can still get 105 points. They have a lot of matches to play in the second half of the season and could be chasing a quadruple, and the pressure may get to them. We have to stay close. The bad news with that is that we can truly afford to lose very little. We can get 96 if we win all but if 88 is right we need to lose no more than 2 with one draw, one loss and 2 draws or 4 draws over 20 matches. We have a truly difficult task ahead of us if 88 turns out to be the target. I think we can forget about it if my original 92 remains correct. Lucky I have been wrong so far, maybe? If Liverpool stumble there could be many teams ready to take advantage Can we do it? Yes, we can, but for sure we need Liverpool to have a bad patch, something they seem reluctant to have. We need 2.6 points per game, they need 2.047619047619048, a lot less. However, one loss for them and one win for us and life doesn’t seem too bad. Chelsea, Forest and even Man City will probably be waiting for a Liverpool slip as well. It could end up a scramble for points and a comparatively low points total. However, for almost all the last ten seasons it has taken more than 88 points to be the winner. I will throw in a strange statistic, 88 points has never been a winning total since the Premier League started. Arsenal could be the first. And so to the matches: This match is crucial to get us off to a good start Brentford away and it is one, as are all of them, that we badly need to win. They are on a poor run at the moment so we have to take advantage. They will park the bus and hope for a breakaway. We must find a way. I think we will with 2-0 and Dani 2-1 and 39 points. Should be enough to avoid relegation, yay! Brighton away and they are in relegation form with four draws and 2 defeats in the last six at the moment. I like Brighton but we have to beat them. Maybe a George Graham result will be enough. One nil to the Arsenal and 3 points gives us 42 points. Dani goes 1-1 and 40 points Tottenham at home and this could be Ange Postecoglou’s last game if we win. I will be there and a nice 3-1 would suit me. 45 points, Dani goes 3-0 and 43 points Then Villa at home and I will also be there. Emery pulls out his best game against us, it seems, and they have already lost six this season so I feel this one will be great to win. 2-1 for me and Dani and 48 points for me and 46 for Dani. Wolves away and they have a new manager bounce but I hope that will be gone by this stage. We are still better than them anyway. 2-0 would work nicely. 51 points and life is looking very good. Dani goes 4-0 and 49 points. We don't need this guy scoring Manchester City could be back flying at this juncture, it is so hard to say. As I write they have been struggling but they did beat Leicester 2-0 with De Bruyne back and Haaland scoring. You can never write them off and they could carve out a point. They may even park the bus. 0-0 and 52 points with Dani 2-1 and 52 points Leicester away and I was at the first match at the Emirates. They looked dreadful in the first half and I thought they would get a real hammering. We were 2-0 up at half time and should have had more. Somehow they fluked two goals and it took two injury time goals to seal the result. This time I feel we can give them a nice beating. 4-0 with Dani 1-0 and 55 points Three crazy games in a row? West Ham away and they certainly have not improved under Lopegetui. I think we can beat them as they look vulnerable. I am going for 3-2 in a bit of a crazy match. Dani goes 1-1 and now has 56 points to my 58 points This could be our bogey game The next match is Forest away and this could be dangerous. I hope we have Saka back and a top team waiting for them. This could be one we let slip away if they continue their top form. I am going to go for 3-2 to them in another crazy game but his time we lose. Still 58 points. Dani goes for Arsenal 2-1 and now 59 points Manchester United at home and at the moment they are doing dreadful. Assuming Amorim gets them playing, maybe with new players, this could be a toughie. They seem to always score against us and I am going for three crazy games in a row. Another 3-2 but this time we win. 61 points with Dani going 3-0 and 62 points Transfers will make a difference? That remark about new players is something I haven’t addressed so far. We seem to have some targets but so will the rest. If any one of the above happens to get some gems then all the predictions could be nonsense. New players can also disrupt as they try to develop partnerships and understandings. The transfer season is so hard to predict and we could look stupid, or more stupid than we have so far this season. The situation is that if we beat Brentford on New Years Day, then every team on the above list are behind us. We are capable of beating them all. To do so we need a consistency that has eluded us so far. Those of you watching my statistics will know that, as said above, we need an average of 2.6 points per game but we have only got 2.4 points per game in my predictions. One loss and one draw may not be good enough. And worse? I would feel we have no chance. This could well be a long hard battle with no reward. But hey, I am always optimistic. It could still be the quadruple!
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