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Where can we finish 2026, part 1? If we win the title it will feel nearly as good as the one above Next 10 Fixtures Burnley (a) Sunderland (a) Tottenham (h) Chelsea (a) Brentford (h) Aston Villa (a) Wolves (h) Everton (a) Brighton (h) Aston Villa (h) A Big Hi to Dave Hardy This time for the series I have a new guest author in Dave Hardy who will be taking a stronger hand as he will not just be predicting but offering his thoughts and arguments as we try to see a clear way into the future and where Arsenal can finish. So, we have a loss to Liverpool and a draw against Man City in nine matches so far, as “Where can we finish?” appears, later than usual. We have 22 points out of 27. Extrapolating that to the end of the season gives us 88 points plus 2 more matches to garner points. The highest total of the past 5 seasons was Man City’s 93 in 2022 so we would need 5 points from those 2 to match that, obviously you can’t get 5 so it would have to be six and 94. We need 89 points? But what is the likely target? I am going to suggest 89 points which is the midway point of the past 5 seasons which was 84, 91, 89, 93 and 86. It could well be less as I feel there are a lot of teams out there capable of garnering points. All teams will park the bus against us? It would mean dropping 20 points out of the maximum of 109 left. We will predict ten matches this time, then another ten and a final 9. That means we can drop 7 in the first ten, then another 7, then 6 in the final nine. Failure to keep up that level means we have to win more as the season goes on, giving us more pressure. Of course beating that target gives us more scope as the season goes on. And, as all other teams have dropped more, they have to garner extra just to keep up. The Derbies will be crucial Using the first nine as a template we would have 4 losses and 4 draws plus the two spare matches where we would only need one draw to get to 89. That would be 5 losses and 5 draws. Considering there are 12 London derbies and virtual derbies against Man City, Liverpool and Man Utd there are a total of 18. We have already dropped 5 against City and Liverpool, with beating Man Utd, West Ham, Fulham and Palace so 13 points out of 6 matches giving us an average of 2.1666 per game. That would give us 39 points from 18 games meaning we will have dropped 15 points from these games alone so we can only drop 10 from the remaining 20. Those matches could be key. Gathering any extra from them will help. Derbies can be a bit volatile We cannot afford the historical losses of points to the lower teams which have plagued us before. Also November and December have been traditional months where we drop points. I hope that doesn’t happen this time but the plus side is that it often happened with injuries to key players and we do have strong cover this time. But a Champions League spot should be easier I will quickly mention CL spots but we should be comfortable here. The final teams to qualify over the past 5 years were Newcastle 66, Villa 68, Newcastle 71, Spuds 71, and Chelsea 67. Those figures are easily within our grasp and it would be possibly career ending for Arteta if we scrape in last. We would have to lose and draw a lot of matches. The question is, as of now, is there anyone going to shoot out of the pack and put us under pressure for the title? If we continue on our current form the answer is no as they all have to make up ground. Maybe we will win all? And so to the matches – Burnley away and this year the promoted teams are looking better. Maybe none will go down. Burnley had a very tough start playing all the big teams and predictably losing but they gave a resurgent Villa a hard game away and have won their last 2. They do not look like a relegation team but make no mistake, if we drop such points we will be in trouble. Liverpool didn’t until they were safe and we mustn’t. Burnley have only failed to score twice this season and I predict a nervy game. I am going to go 1-2 to us as they scramble a goal first and defend for their lives. If this guy puts on his scoring boots life will be easier Dave - We start this series of 10 Premier League games away at Turf Moor to face Burnley. Historically, Arsenal have done well in that stadium ever since Burnley got promoted to the top flight for the first time in the 2009-10 season. Our latest visit there resulted in a 5:0 victory back in February 2024. Even though Scott Parker has done a tremendous job with the Clarets, I think that we will walk away with the 3 points from Turf Moor. 25 points after 10 games would be a very nice total as Dave Hardy also sees a win at 1-3. And who else next but Sunderland away, already looking safe with highest placed relegated Leicester on 25 points last time? 17 points in the bag and the fans dreaming of Europe. I have Sunderland friends but we must not do them any favours. I think they will battle for everything and it will take us to the second half to break them down but eventually 2-0. A long time since we met them in the league Dave - It took the Black Cats about 8 years to finally return to Premier League, which means that we haven’t been at the Stadium of Light since 2016. Our record in that venue has not always been brilliant, but nevertheless we’ve won 5 out of the last 6 trips there. Regis Le Bris’s side is quite interesting to watch this season, and they won’t give up without a fight. 28 points with Dave also going 2-0. The constant this season may well be that we don’t have many big wins as home or away teams will pack their defence. 5-0 against Leeds and 3-0 against Forest are standouts and we may not have many. Next home against Tottenham, and our first derby of this tranche, who are still looking inconsistent under Thomas Frank, but have had some strong results and are 3rd at time of writing. I hope it’s not just my heart talking but I would be happy with the fans singing our favourite song after scoring early and hanging on to it with George Graham in attendance. 1-0 to the Arsenal and 31 points. Dave Hardy for a far more entertaining match. Would Thomas Frank allow that? I am not sure. Dave - Ah, the good old Spursy and the NLD. That fixture is always tough to predict, especially after the international break, but at least they didn’t schedule it for a 12:30 kick-off on Saturday. Thomas Frank is a tremendous manager and has built his side well. The fact that we managed to snatch Eze from their hands might increase the pressure in this fixture, but I expect for us to end up victorious with 3-2 31 points Chelsea away, another derby, and despite our pretty good record against them recently we could well drop points here. November blues hit us and they beat us 2-0. The team to face us at the Bridge Dave -There used to be days when visiting the Bridge only meant that we would be hammered and walk away empty handed. However, our last loss there is dating back to August 2018, and since then the Blues only managed to beat us twice more at the Emirates. I think that our streak will continue but you can’t win them all, so a draw here seems fair enough. 31 points for me. Here Dave Hardy goes for a draw 1-1 so 32 points. Brentford at the Emirates and once more a derby. They are a doggedly tough team to beat. They have Keith Andrews in charge, an Irish favourite, but I would again love to hear the George Graham song being sung at the end. I won’t even say the name this time. No one nil to the Arsenal for Dave Hardy though as he sees 3-1. As Gus stated, Brentford are a bit of a dodgy team to play against, but after a major exodus in the summer and a manager change I think we will be able to do our job and secure another vital 3 points for the title bout. 34 points for me and 35 for Dave. Aston Villa at Villa Park should also be regarded as a derby as Unai Emery often pulls out a great performance against us. They are flying at the moment and I would not be surprised to see them top four at this point. 1-1 and Emi Martinez plays a cracker. Dave -The December calendar is full of hefty fixtures and a trip to Villa Park is not an easy one. Villa have been on the rise for the last couple of years and even managed to stop us from winning the League in 2023-24 (even though we know it was the consecutive losses to West Ham and Fulham which did the major damage). Unai Emery always tries to prove himself against Arsenal, and I expect the same thing again. 35 points and 36 points for Dave as he predicts 2-2. With a bit of luck Wolves give us a breather at the Emirates next and we fire in 4. It is hard to know who will be the manager as Periera seems to be on the brink after being beaten at home by fellow strugglers Burnley. We don’t care who is in charge as the 4 clear goals give us 3 points. Dave is even more optimistic as he goes 5-0. Dave - This season Wolves are playing like they are already in the Championship. As I write this, they’re still the only team without a victory in the League and maybe they’ll still be like that when they visit the Emirates in mid-December. Of course, we all know that magic can happen there, but I expect a big dominant win. 38 and 39 points Everton next at their shiny new stadium which I am hoping to get to at some point. David Moyes will make it hard but I am hoping we can sing our song again right to the end. This might be our best year for it. That will make six times we will have sung it at the end and 41 points. Dave Hardy sees more goals at 1-2. Everton's new stadium really does look impressive Dave - Our last visit to the Goodison Park ended in a 1-1 draw. Historically Everton had periods when it was tough to beat them at home, so I expect our first visit to their new ground to be quite the same, but for us to walk out with the 3 points in the end. Nothing gives you a heart attack like a last-minute winner. 41 and 42 points Brighton at home and they have been a bogey team for us in recent times. Every time they make it hard for us and the Christmas effect hits us as we score very late on for 3-2. Dave Hardy sees it easier at 2-0. Dave - The Christmas fixtures are always unpredictable as you don’t know which team might be in the spirit of giving. Both of our games against the Seagulls last season were full of shenanigans by the refs, with questionable red cards, penalties, etc. Fabian Huerzeler also is a guy who is not hard to hate, even though he’s still only 32 years old. I expect us to have a comfortable 2-0 win which will see us still top of the League. 44 and 45 points And then Villa once more and Martinez does it again at the Emirates. He has a cracker and another Christmas style game with lots of chances means Emery grabs a point off us again with another 1-1. Dave Hardy sees Emery as being more generous at 3-1. We need to teach Unai Emery a lesson Dave - Not even a full month after the visit to Villa Park, they’ll come to the Emirates. Our last two home games against Villa have not been so great, so if there is a team that has something to play for, it’s Arsenal. I think that we’ll finish the year on a strong note and secure a good win, to increase our lead at the top. We diverge further as I now give 45 points and Dave 48 points and well on our way to the target of 89 points. Both scenarios are optimistic. However, there are only 3 derbies in these games but put that against Brighton and Villa taking points off us recently. We all know what Arsenal need – win and keep winning. I believe even my less positive predictions will leave us more than 4 points clear and the path to the title will be clearer. If Dave or me are correct, we could be up to 10 points clear after 19 matches. Somehow, I still fear the blip that the winter normally gives us. But up the Arsenal and our youngsters and guys hungry to come in!