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The Art of Prediction
Augustine Worth posted an article in London CallingThe Table of Doom Update Arsenal Current 72 Max 99 Liverpool(a) Man City(a) Newcastle (a) Brighton(h) Man City Max 94 Brighton (a) Arsenal (h) Man Utd Max 83 Brighton(a) Tottenham(a) Newcastle Max 83 Tottenham(h) Arsenal(h) Tottenham Max 79 Brighton(h) Newcastle(a) Man Utd(h) Liverpool (a) Brighton Max 79 Man Utd(h) Tottenham(a) Man City(h) Arsenal(a) Liverpool Max 73 Arsenal(h) Tottenham(h) As I have said I will update the table of doom every week with the max points available for each team. Man Utd, Spurs, Brighton and Liverpool have all dropped points so move further away from us. It seems close to impossible for Liverpool to catch us now so I feel they will be the first to drop out of this table. A draw at the weekend and they are out leaving only six able to catch us. Man Utd play Brentford at home tonight and they are proving very difficult to beat. Newcastle play West Ham away and with the Hammers desperate to get points and David Moyes even more so they might drop further away. It seems, realistically that Man City are the only real danger as with 9 matches to go even 9 draws would give us 81 which is very close to Man U’s and Newcastle’s maximum. Champions League is all but certain as the chasing pack have games against each other meaning they drop points. C’mon the Arse! And so on to my main piece: The art of prediction – it gives you the blues Predicting football matches is extraordinarily difficult. Injuries, loss of form, transfers, a player acting up in the dressing room bringing down the winning atmosphere (yes, we are looking at you, Aubameyang), bad luck, referees, VAR and a myriad other possibilities bring factors to bear on your predictions. I decided to take a look at how I have done so far since I started this blog a few years ago. Yes, you made the right Blue choice, Pierre My first was on Jan 20th and I just made a general prediction for the end of the season 2020/21. I went 64 points and we got 61. Not too bad, really as the transfer window hadn’t ended so I didn’t know who we would have and what our rivals would do. We got in Martin Odegaard and Mat Ryan on loan after I wrote so not a huge difference. I did well, I feel. No need to be Blue, Martin I did an update on April 6th with 8 matches to go and predicted 61 points and we got 61 points. This time I predicted all the scores and even that I did well, getting some exactly right. So, despite all I have said above, it is possible to get things right. Not so Blue Mat Ryan Next season was last season 2021/22 and I started on Nov 9th predicting our points total to halfway 19 matches and I said 38 but we got 35. Again I predicted all matches and got some right including Norwich 5-0. Not too bad at all. The next was December 29th and I predicted the next 9 matches. I said 52 points and we got 51. Did I say prediction was hard? Looks like it’s easy. Particularly as the January transfer window hadn’t opened yet. The only one we got in was Auston Trusty from Colorado Rapids and he became a superstar center-back for us. Ok, maybe not but he is doing really well at Birmingham on loan, playing every game this season and scoring 4 goals from the back. He is under the radar but he could become good. A Blue move may have done you good, Auston March 22 was my final try. I predicted 74 and we got 69. In fairness to myself, I didn’t foresee the collapse we had in the last few matches with Spurs, Newcastle and Everton giving us tonkings. A feature of Arsenal for this season and last is that we don’t draw matches. We had 13 defeats and almost got Champions League. My weakness has been that I put us down for draws and we never seem to get them. We had only 3 draws last season and 3 so far this season. I have to factor that in for the future if it continues. Only Jesus can take away the Blues So now this season. I started on August 2nd. I am not sure how many thought we would win the league or get Champions League but I was hopeful of the latter. I am generally regarded as an optimist so I said 17 points for the first 8 matches but we got 21 and were top of the league. I said we are top of the league! Blue? No that is Red and White you see, Leo I did another 8 on October 4th and said 39 points but we got 43 and still top of the league. I am always happy if we get more than I predict, of course. So then to January 2nd and my next set of predictions. The World Cup was over but we had lost Jesus. It seemed that Nketiah wasn’t of his class and we didn’t really have anyone else. But I predicted anyway. 11 matches and I said 67 points. We got 66. Very close. In fairness we got in Trossard, Jorginho and Kiwior, which I didn’t know about at the time and 2 of those look like they will be very useful to us this season. Jorginho - the final Blue part of the jigsaw My last try this season and we started with Leeds. I said 3-0 and we got 4-1. Not too bad, Gus, at all. I have predicted 90 points and winning the league or 93 if City hand it to us by dropping points and the final matches nervousness goes out of the team. My history as a predictor indicates that it could well be our year. I manage to get a lot of results right and sometimes even scores. By that reckoning you should put your house, your Maserati, and your wife or husband on Arsenal to win. I no longer bet so I can’t take my own advice.