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Premier league managers are not all gone- yet. On February 1st 2024 I wrote that we could see the biggest amount of change ever in the Premier League by the start of the new season. I was wrong, at least so far. Six teams changed managers with only Burnley of the relegated teams, and even then, Kompany left of his own accord for a much bigger team in Bayern Munich. Crystal Palace fired Roy Hodgson as expected, De Zerbi left Brighton, Pochettino was fired from Chelsea, Klopp really did leave Liverpool, David Moyes was pushed out at West Ham. We still have a little bit of time yet but I don’t anticipate much more to come. There might be a job at Everton, David The only one I got seriously wrong was David Moyes. It seems West Ham fans just didn’t like him. But it was the most unjust sacking I have seen in a while. West Ham never win trophies but somehow Moyes managed the miracle. I cannot see them winning another any time soon. Ten Hag is the miracle man Lots of managers got a late reprieve with Ten Hag at Manchester United perhaps the most notable. Winning the FA Cup saved him although he is probably a strong contender for the sack if he gets off to a bad start. Ten Hag - I need the ten best players in the world to come to Utd or I will be sacked Thomas Frank dropping down towards the relegation zone didn’t help his prospects of getting a big job but I feel he is in some owner’s minds all the same. Roberto de Zerbi moved to Marseille but that’s not much of a step up. Arteta is going nowhere but who is going out? Arteta could have been tempted by Barcelona but the job went to Hansi Flick. Arteta surely has a power at Arsenal that he would not have at another club? The team is his, the players are his, and he seems to have the backroom team on his side as well. A move would see him having to create a lot of new relationships. I feel only a severe bad spell could see the Arteta out brigade gaining traction. Arteta to stay, then. Arne Slot - he won't slot in Who could go, then? Arne Slot is in a high pressure job, probably the second most such after Chelsea. He needs results and a good style of play. Otherwise one season may be his achievement. Enzo Maresca? Chelsea are rapidly becoming a graveyard for managers. Under Abramovich they would win and still be fired so at least they were employable. Now, they don't win, get fired, and maybe end up on the dungheap. Maresca has no Premier League experience, faces a divided club, with lots of high salaries and no-one has any clue who their best players are, with the exception of Cole Palmer. I suppose, in comparison to Arne Slot though, he has a little more leeway. If he brings them up a little he may get a stay of execution. What does the betting say? Ten Hag has proven resilient at Manchester United. The new system in place may benefit him, however, he needs top players to come in and make an immediate impact. Players like Erikson and Casemiro seem to be coming to an end and Rashford, Anthony and Martial along with others are going or need to improve. It will be hard to have a top season but he needs green shoots to get another chance. Is a strong candidate for the sack I feel, and is 10-1 in the betting. Enzo Maresca - bye bye Russell Martin of Southampton is 14-1 and teams who come up via the playoffs have it difficult. They will probably struggle but I am not sure he will go until the end unless they have a real disaster. Sean Dyche is also 14-1 and that must be surprising but honestly I am more surprised that someone has not come in for him. He is a top manager, particularly with limited resources. The chaos at Everton is the reason he is so high in the betting but I don’t believe he will be fired, although he may leave. The London boys won’t be sacked Oliver Glasner of Crystal Place is 12-1 and I can’t really understand why. They did well and have a lot of good young players. I think they will be comfortable. He won’t be fired. Marco Silva at Fulham is 12-1 and again I would be surprised if he gets fired. Buying in Smith-Rowe could be the latest in his normally good signings and it is a bit of a little Arsenal now with Leno and Iwobi already there. I see them above mid-table. Andoni Iraola at Bournemouth is also 12-1 and I also don’t know why. They will probably be bottom half but high bottom half. The first 100 year old to play in the Premier League? Steve Cooper is 10-1 and yes he has a hard task as Leicester, of the 3 promoted teams, have the highest expectations. They did win the Premier League not too long ago and have experienced players at this level, including 100 year old Jamie Vardy, who will probably continue to bang in goals. Cooper’s record at his various teams and the England youths, is quite good and I expect he will keep them up without too much bother. He never seems to stay a long time, though. I will be astonished if Eddie Howe gets the boot Eddie Howe of Newcastle is 8-1 but that is down to the off field problems they are having with finances. Top players are up for sale and there is talk of Isak coming to Arsenal. If they sell off and are weakened then Howe could go but I really do not see it as his fault. Again, unless he has a disaster and he never does at any club, then he will be there at the end of the season. Santo lost in the Forest Nuno Espirito Santo is 10-1 and he is one I fancy will not last. He seems to have lost his mojo and a bad run at Nottingham Forest will see him booted out. If you can get better than 10 -1 I would grab it but I feel that is free money. A thousand on that gives you 11 back and that would make it a good year for you. He will go, I am certain. There is a way out of the Forest, Nuno - the sack Arne Slot can get you up to 50-1 and that seems a bargain. Even a small bet there will pay off most likely. A bad run could give you the option to cash out and I am certain that will happen. Enzo Maresca is 16-1 and that also is nearly guaranteed to pay out. Definitely, once Chelsea have their usual disaster run you will be able to cash out. These last three are value to me. You heard it here first. Put your money on those three straightaway and once there is good cash out value, take your money. And don’t forget to say thanks Gus.

On our way to being Champions? Newcastle A Burnley H Brentford A Wolves H Luton A Villa A Brighton H Liverpool A West Ham H Fulham A And so here we are again, trying to figure out where we will be after the next range of matches without knowing what players we will have available, what traumas can happen, and the same for our opponents. One thing we will know is that the transfer season won’t reopen until after our match against Fulham away as that is on December 31st. So, unless something happens to our fixture list and games get postponed, we don’t have to worry about Liverpool or maybe Villa buying Kane, Bellingham and Mbappe and giving us all the jitters. Now, as regular readers know, I generally get to within three points of our final tally and this time was no different. See here for the last one. The good news was I was three points less this time so we gathered 3 extra points courtesy of Man City which I did not predict. Thank you Pep. So we are still on target for the League with 24 points and the nerves I had about Champions league have not resulted in defeats for us. Long may that continue. Tough away matches could be key Of course, looking at the list is always intimidating. The strange thing about the prediction game is that if we lost or drew any of these games individually, even Luton or Burnley, we would not be too shocked as bad results happen every season. We would be shocked if we lost or drew all, though. But Newcastle, Brentford, Villa and Liverpool away are a big challenge. Even our super confident predictors among ASCB would find it hard to put down 4 wins there. But this time, in a change to my usual format I have drawn on my great colleague and editor of this blog, Dani Georgiev, to give his parallel predictions and we will see how we get on. Neither of us saw the others forecast first so we went in blind. The last time I opined that 86 points is the minimum needed to have a chance at winning, being Man Citys lowest winning total. I reckoned that this season could be more competitive with teams taking points off each other bringing down the total points needed. Of course I could be very wrong. But let’s take a look at what we need over the rest of the matches. We have 24 so that leaves 62 over 28 matches, meaning an average of a little more than 2.2 points per game. Frightening, yes? That is the reality and 86 may not be enough. To break that down over these ten matches it means we need almost 23 points to keep us on target. 47 points has to be the aim. Bash the little guys Now, I always emphasise that you must put away the lower teams. That means for sure Burnley, Wolves, Luton, West Ham, and Fulham. That gives us 15 points. Brentford and Brighton? Always tough but I think we need to beat them. It gives us 21 points and that means only 2 needed from the 3 away stinkers. Experience tells us that we will drop points. Experience also tells us that many of them cannot be against the 7 mentioned as lower teams. Put them away crying to the home patches is the safest answer. So can we beat Newcastle away? Only an idiot would feel so but I think we can, on the basis that Eddie Howe’s team have been a bit unpredictable but are certainly playing a more attacking style than last year. That will give us openings. We don’t like a team parking the bus. Newcastle won’t do that at home. Martinelli and Saka will need to be at their best but I fancy an 0-2 for us. 27 points for us. Dani Georgiev has gone for 1-1 and certainly that would be a good result but 25 points. No thumbs up, Eddie Burnley at home? They have had a stinker but such matches can be good for struggling teams. Arsenal away is a relief from pressure. Keep us quiet and sneak something is what they will hope for. They are not expected to win and every team drops some points against the lower ones. But I feel we won’t this time. Arteta and Kompany may be mates but I am going for a nervy 2-1 and 30 points. Dani goes for 4-0 and 28 points. Brentford away? This could be a very difficult match. They don’t get beaten at home and I feel that they won’t here either. 1-1 and 31 points. Dani goes 2-1 to us so we are now equal on 31 points. Why are you so difficult, Thomas? Wolves at home? If they turn up with their fangs bared and we are stuttery this could all go wrong. They have a habit of winning games they are not expected to and this year it is our turn. 1-0 to the Wolves see us drop our heads, lose our unbeaten record and are still on 31 points. Dani cannot see the stutter and he goes 3-1 for us and 34 points as he pulls away from me. Oh, no, eaten by Wolves Luton away? By this time Luton have garnered some points, are playing a bit better but their home advantage works against them as they give us an early goal by trying to win the match. These games are always dangerous because bottom teams are expected to lose. We play rubbish and that early goal is all we manage and it is one nil to the Arsenal. 34 points. Dani sees an easy win 3-0 and 37 points. Villa away and the second stinker. Newcastle was kind but this one is not to be. Unai Emery gives us a headache and they win 3-2. We are still on 34 points. Dani does not see Villa get that extra goal and he sees 2-2 so he pulls away again at 38 points. Unai Emery is a happy man Brighton at home and Robert de Zerbi’s teams are always tough for us. We have not played well for the past 3 games and this one is no exception. We go behind 2-0 and we are looking on in frustration as time ticks away. Until the 80th minute and Havertz the sub scores a lucky one, only his second so far. It lights up our team as Nketiah zips in another. We are rocketing the ball about like crazy and in the 99th minute, yes, it’s true, Havertz scores again. 3-2 and 37 points. Dani predicts 1-1 and drops back a little to me at 39. Havertz has two goals Liverpool away and the previous result helps our confidence as stinker number 3 comes up. Klopp’s boys looking to put us in our place at home over Christmas Their season has been pretty good and they are winning most although not always playing well. Anfield is not a place teams go to win but we have our best performance of the season, playing fast, sharp football and Jurgen wishes he had Martinelli and Saka. They play like demons and he is shellshocked by our two nil to the Arsenal in a repeat of 1989. 40 points. Dani speculates on one nil to the Arsenal and 42 points. Yes, that's the right face, Jurgen West Ham at home over Christmas and they can be a tricky side for us but our boys belief has skyrocketed. Declan Rice runs the show and we end up 1-0 to the Arsenal in a game we dominate. 43 points. Dani sees lots of goals and 3-2 to us. But now 45 points. Finally, Fulham away on the last day of the year. We owe them for the indignity of the draw earlier in the season at home by giving them a nice beating of 4-1. We get 46 points. A little less than we need but puts us in with a chance. Dani sees us winning but a much tougher match and again he loves that one nil to the Arsenal. He finishes up with 48 points which is a little more than we need. Dani, being an optimist, sees the unbeaten run continuing. No, no smiling after your team get hammered, Marco And so I have gone for 2 losses, a draw and the rest wins. 3 out of the 4 really tough away matches yield 7 points and we haven’t done badly despite losing form in the middle. But we now need to pick up an extra point at least in our remaining matches. We can do it, you know? Up the Arse!